Arizona State vs. Stanford, Ole Miss vs. Missouri, Kansas State vs. West Virginia
Wardlaw University College Basketball Point Spread Previews
Lee Wardlaw contributes sports wagering prediction articles to SmokinSpreads.com. Visit SmokinSpreads.com for more of the latest picks and predictions from Wardlaw and six other cappers.
Arizona State vs. Stanford
14-16 Arizona State is riding a four-game win streak and defeated the Cardinal 65-56 on their home court in the regular-season finale. Stanford finished 2-8 in their last 10, while the Sun Devils rallied to 7-3, running their conference record back to 10-10.
The No. 256-ranked Cardinal offense faces an Arizona State defense that allowed the No. 3-fewest point and No.1-lowest field goal and three-point percentages. In seven of their last eight, the Sun Devils only lost to No. 2 seed UCLA. 10-2 ATS in their last 12 following a straight-up win and 7-1 ATS in their last 8, the Crocodile underestimated them when they upset Colorado, this reptile getting smoked by the Sun Devils last time out.
Not again, especially with a No. 21 adjusted defense, according to Ken Pom. Take Arizona State and the spread.
Arizona State: -3.5 (-110)
1.1u to win 1u
Ole Miss vs. Missouri
The Ole Miss Rebels take on the Missouri Tigers tonight at the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida in a battle of SEC afterthoughts. The (13-18, 4-14, SEC) Rebels haven’t tallied a victory since Feb. 19 against Georgia. Coincidentally, Missouri is on a one-game winning streak, against the same last-place Bulldogs team.
The two combine for 15 losses in their last 20 combined games, getting dogged in 75 percent of those collective contests. The Tigers defeated Ole Miss twice in regular-season action. It’s hard to defeat a team thrice in one season, especially if you’re a basketball team as bad as Missouri.
The Tigers shot abnormally well in both contests, 63.6% from the 2-point and 57% from the 3-point in Game 1, followed with an abnormally hot 50% output from the 3-point in Game 2, a successful shooting a strange concept for miserable Missouri, defeating the Rebels 78-53 (Jan. 18) and 74-68 (Feb. 12).
The Rebels are favored in the third edition of the series, though, as leading scorer, Jarkel Joiner’s presence should prove pivotal. Joiner averages 13.2 points per game.
However, Missouri has been apt at keeping contests closer than expected in games that shouldn’t even be competitive to begin with. It’s also questionable to think that cappers have a Rebels team as this large of a favorite against a team they haven’t defeated once this season, or even come within six points of to date.
It’s hard to create separation between the two that haven’t proved anything in 2021-22, but expect a closely-contested rock fight between two bad teams. Missouri covers.
Pick: Missouri spread, +4 (-110)
Units: 1.1u to win 1u
West Virginia (15-16, 4-14) faces Kansas State (14-16, 6-12) in Kansas City in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament.
Kansas State is No. 1 in the Big 12 and No. 73 in the NCAA in turnover percentage allowed by opponents, according to Team Rankings, which is good enough to advance the ball up the court against the No. 21 KenPom Mountaineers turnover defense. However, given their attack-based strategy, West Virginia will still have their way with the Wildcats and create opportunities of their own.
The Mountaineers’ 1-3-1 trap defense has been predictable of late, West Virginia allowing 78.1 points in 13 of their Big 12 losses.
Kansas State throws up the three-pointer more than anyone in the Big 12 (24.2 attempts per game) and leading scorer Nigel Pack is shooting 43.6% on 7.5 attempts per contest. West Virginia is the No. 2 worst team in the Big 12 at defending the three.
West Virginia’s aggressive defense means that the Mountaineers send opponents to the charity stripe at the No. 2 highest margin in the Big 12. The Wildcats send opponents to the free-throw line the No. 4 most in the league. Bring on the points.
Pick: Over 137 (-110)
Units: 1.1u to win 1u